基于数理方法的长岭县降水量分析

为探寻长岭县降水量序列的特征及变化规律,基于长岭县1954-2005年降水量资料,采用统计学方法、Mann-Kendall方法、叠加的马尔科夫链方法,对长岭县的降水量特征值、年内年际变化、降水量自相关性以及变化规律进行了分析。结果表明:长岭县年内降水量和典型年年内降水量主要集中在6-8月份,分别占70%、80%;降水量年际变化呈现出丰-平-枯的变化趋势,平均8年出现一次降水变化小周期;降水量系列是相互独立的,并且降水量系列呈递减的趋势,枯季降水量平均每年减少4.86mm;叠加的马尔科夫链方法可用于长岭县降水量的预测,但需要结合总体的降水量变化周期,以消除大旱或大涝年份导致的误差。

Assessment of Precipitation in Changling County Based on Mathematical Methods

In order to clarify the characteristics and variation rule of precipitation serial in Changling county,based on the precipitation data from 1954 to 2005,the statistic method,m-k method and superimposed Markov chain method are used to analyze the eigenvalue,change through one year,annual change,autocorrelation and variation rule of precipitation.The results show that the precipitation of one year and the typical year in Changeling is mainly concentrated in June to August and accounts for 70%,80%,respectively.The annual precipitation change shows wet-flat-dry trend and the precipitation change cycle occurs per 8 years.The precipitation series are independent of each other and show a decreasing tread,the precipitation in dry season reduces by average 4.86mm per year.The superposition Markov chain method can be used for the precipitation change prediction,but requires the combination with the overall precipitation cycle change to eliminate the errors caused by severe drought or flood.