Impacts of climate variability on reference evapotranspiration over 58 years in the Haihe river basin of north China

Physically, evaporative demand is driven by net radiation (R_n), vapour pressure (e_a), wind speed (u₂), and air temperature (T_a), each of which changes over time. By analyzing temporal variations in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), improved understanding of the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes can be obtained. In this study, variations in ET₀ over 58 years (1950-2007) at 34 stations in the Haihe river basin of China were analyzed. ET₀ was calculated by the FAO Penman-Monteith formula. Calculation of Kendall rank coefficient was done by analyzing the annual and seasonal trends in ET₀ derived from its dependent climate variables. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was used to analyze the spatial variation in annual and seasonal ET₀, and in each climate variable. An attribution analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of each input variable to ET₀ variation. The results showed that ET₀ gradually decreased in the whole basin over the 58 years at a rate of −1.0 mm yr⁻², at the same time, R_n, u₂ and precipitation also decreased. Changes in ET₀ were attributed to the variations in net radiation (−0.9 mm yr⁻²), vapour pressure (−0.5 mm yr⁻²), wind speed (−1.3 mm yr⁻²) and air temperature (1.7 mm yr⁻²). Looking at all data on a month by month basis, we found that T_a had a positive effect on dET₀/dt (the derivative of reference evapotranspiration to time) and R_n and u₂ had negative effects on dET₀/dt. While changes in air temperature were found to produce a large increase in dET₀/dt, changes in other key variables each reduced rates, resulting in an overall negative trend in dET₀/dt.