甘蔗育种经济权重选择指数法的应用研究Ⅰ. 目标性状经济权重模型的构建

选育及推广应用甘蔗良种能带给蔗糖产业最大化的经济效益,从市场经济的角度客观高效地筛选和评价甘蔗品种对蔗糖生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究旨在对甘蔗的多个目标性状进行经济权重模型的构建,客观评价目标性状的相对重要性,为完善甘蔗育种评价体系和甘蔗良种的推广应用奠定基础。依据云南省18家糖厂3个榨季的调查问卷数据和云南省多年从事甘蔗生产的农户及农场管理人员的调研反馈数据,对整个蔗糖产业各个环节进行成本核算,计算不同经济性状的经济权重,获得了如下主要结果：（1）构建了甘蔗11个育种目标性状的经济权重模型,包括3个直接目标性状（蔗茎产量、甘蔗蔗糖分、纤维分）,8个间接目标性状（茎径、有效茎、株高、蒲心、脱叶性、57号毛群、侧芽、芽突起程度）;（2）基于新植产量63 t/hm ²、糖分12.5%、纤维分12.0%和甘蔗1 a新植2 a宿根生产周期总产量170.73 t/hm ²的条件下,每吨糖的总生产成本为4643.99元,蔗农的生产成本占总成本的68.15%,糖厂的生产成本占总成本的31.85%;当每吨甘蔗的收购价格为440元时,蔗农每吨甘蔗的收益为44.38元,当市场糖价突破每吨糖5000元时,糖厂每吨糖的收益超过356.01元;（3）基于目前人工收获生产模式条件下,甘蔗11个目标性状的绝对经济权重值为：蔗茎产量（t/hm ²）37.95元、商业糖分（%）328.44元、纤维分（%）-22.28元、茎径（cm）320元、有效茎（条/m ²）-80元、株高（cm）0元、蒲心（分级）-760元、脱叶性（分级）-320元、57号毛群（分级）-160元、侧芽（分级）-159.82元、芽突起程度（分级）-63.26元;（4）结合性状遗传增益的分析得到11目标性状的相对经济权重值,依次为商业糖分400.99元、蔗茎产量130.51元、茎径36.93元、株高0元、芽突起程度-5.22元、纤维分-8.25元、脱叶性-21.15元、侧芽-24.30元、有效茎-28.61元、毛群-30.72元、蒲心-200.04元。通过对整个蔗糖产业各个环节成本的核算,利用边际效益的方法构建的目标性状经济权重模型可为甘蔗品种选育和推广应用提供参考和依据。

Applied Research on Selection Index Method Based on the Economic Weight in Sugarcane Breeding Program Ⅰ. Establishment of Economic Weight Model for Target Traits

Maximizing economic benefits could be realized by selection and application of nice sugarcane varieties in the whole sugar industry.Efficient screening and evaluation of sugarcane varieties on the perspective of market economy is of great significance for the sustainable development of sugar production.This study was conducted to establish the economic weight models of multiple traits and evaluate relative importance of these traits so that to provide a base for improving breeding evaluation efficiency and application of nice sugarcane varieties in sugarcane industry.The cost accounting for all aspects of the whole sugar industry was estimated,based on the survey data of three milling seasons from eighteen sugar mills and the feedback data from some experiential farmers who had engaged in sugarcane production for many years in Yunnan Province.The models of economic weight for different economic traits of sugarcane were established and their relative importance were analyzed according to their relative values of economic weight respectively.The main results were as follows:(1)the models of economic weight for eleven target traits were established,including three direct target traits(cane yield,sucrose content and fiber content),and eight indirect target traits(stalk diameter,millable stalks per hectare,stalk height,pithiness,trashiness,hairiness,side shoot and protruded bud).(2)The total cost per ton of sugar was 4643.99 yuan assuming production system parameters described above(plant crop yield=63 t/hm^2,sugar content=12.5%,fiber=12.0%,and total production=170.73 t/hm^2,including one plant crop and two ratoon crops)as a baseline.The production cost for sugarcane grower and sugar mill accounted for 68.15%and 31.85%of the total cost respectively.When the purchase price of sugarcane per ton of cane was 440 yuan,the profit of the farmer per ton of cane was 44.38 yuan.However,when the price of sugar per ton in the market exceeded 5000 yuan,the profit of the sugar mill per ton of sugar was more than 356.01 yuan.(3)Currently based on the manual harvest,the absolute economic weight value of 11 target traits of sugarcane were:cane yield(TCH,t/hm^2)37.95 yuan,sugar content(CCS,%)328.44 yuan,fiber(Fr,%)22.28 yuan,stalk diameter(SD,cm)320 yuan,millable stalk number(SN,stalks/m2)?80 yuan,stalk height(SH,cm)0,pithiness(Pi,rating)?760 yuan,trashiness(Ti,rating)?320 yuan,hairiness(Hi,rating)?160 yuan,side shoot(SS,rating)?159.82 yuan,and protruded bud(PB,rating)?63.26 yuan.(4)Combining the genetic gains,the relative economic weight values of these traits were obtained.The relative economic weight value of CCS,TCH,SD,SH,PB,Fi,Ti,SS,SN,Hi,Pi was 400.99,130.51,36.93,0,?5.22,?8.25,?21.15,?24.30,?28.61,?30.72,and?200.04 yuan,respectively.The establishment of the economic weight model for the target traits would provide a reference and basis for the sugarcane breeding and analyzing the production cost and marginal benefit in the whole sugar industry.