基于ARIMA模型的我国大豆单产预测分析

在我国大豆单产光合潜力和"农业生态区划"(AEZ)潜力基础上,运用ARIMA(自回归单整移动平均)模型预测了2020年前我国大豆单产。结果表明:我国大豆单产最大潜力为3 400 kg·hm~(-2),而2017、2018、2019和2020年单产将分别为1 899,1 926,1 954和1 982 kg·hm~(-2),分别是最大潜力的55.85%、56.65%、57.47%和58.29%。这意味着:未来提高我国大豆单产尚有较大空间,应保持高产耕地生产力与改良中低产田土并重。研究结果旨在为我国大豆生产提供决策参考信息。

Prediction on Chinese Soybean Yield Based on ARIMA Model

In this paper,the potentials of Chinese soybean yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model,based on which the soybean yield before 2020 were predicted by ARIMA model.The results showed that maximum potential of Chinese soybean yield in long future estimated by AEZ model was 3 400 kg·ha-1,while the yield in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020,predicted by ARIMA model,was 1 899,1 926,1 954 and 1 982 kg·ha-1,respectively,with 55.85％,56.65％,57.47％ and 58.29％ of its maximum potential,correspondingly.The results signified that higher improvement opportunities for Chinese soybean production come from both sustaining the productivity of high yield fields and ameliorating middle and low ones,which would provide reference significance to guiding national practice.