大花蕙兰营养生长期植株生长与辐热积关系的模拟模型研究

根据光照辐射和温度对大花蕙兰生长状况的影响，通过‘明月’和‘梦幻’两个品种在两个温室中的试验，建立了以辐热积为指标的温室大花蕙兰生长指标预测模型，并使用独立的试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明：模型对于大花蕙兰两个品种‘明月’和‘梦幻’母球、子球、孙球植株最长叶长、假鳞茎直径、展叶数的预测值与实际观测值的决定系数（R2）分别高于0.98、0.98、0.95；回归估计标准误差（RMSE）分别低于2.06 cm、0.85 mm、1.21 片；预测相对误差（RSE）分别低于4.8%、2.8%、8.8%。表明该模型对以上生长指标的预测精度较高，可为温室大花蕙兰生产中的光照和温度的调控提供理论依据。

Study on Stimulation Model of Growth Condition of Cymbidium hybridum Vegetative Growth Period Based on Production of Thermal Effectiveness and PAR

Product of thermal effectiveness and PAR（TEP）is an important method in the crop growth simulation models. The growth condition including the longest leaf-length，pseudobulb diameter and the number of unfolding leaf，is an important index in Cymbidium’s vegetative growth period. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of both temperature and photosynthetically active radiation on the growth condition of Cymbidium hybridum vegetative growth period. According to the characteristic of growth and development of Cymbidium responding to temperature and light，Cymbidium Hiroshima Golden Cup ‘Sunny Moon’and Cymbidium Great Flower‘Marie Laurencin’were used as experimental materials to study the growth and development simulation of Cymbidium in the greenhouse by the method of TEP. The results showed that the predicted results，including the longest leaf-length，pseudobulb diameter and the number of unfolding leaf，accorded well with the observed ones. The decision coefficient（R2）of predicted values and actual measured values of the cue ball，cormel，sun ball’s longest leaf-length，pseudobulb diameter，the number of unfolding leaf of the two varieties were respectively higher than 0.98，0.98，0.95； The regression estimation standard error（RMSE）were respectively lower than 2.06 cm，0.85 mm，1.21； The relative prediction error（RSE）were lower than 4.8%，2.8%，8.8%. The simulation model is applicable with few parameters，and can provide an effective method to predict the growth condition of Cymbidium’s vegetative growth period and decision support for the light and temperature management of greenhouse Cymbidium’s production.