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河北省2020年前3季度马铃薯价格分析及后市预测
引用本文:魏子珍,王哲,周繁.河北省2020年前3季度马铃薯价格分析及后市预测[J].蔬菜,2020(12):64-70.
作者姓名:魏子珍  王哲  周繁
作者单位:1.河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北 保定 071000;2.河北省农业农村厅,河北 石家庄 050011
基金项目:河北省现代农业产业技术体系薯类创新团队项目(HBCT2018080301)。
摘    要:依据全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统对马铃薯的实时监控数据,以河北省2020年前3季度马铃薯价格为研究对象,对河北省第一、二、三季度以及前3季度整体马铃薯价格进行横向、纵向比较,并分析影响马铃薯价格波动的因素。结果显示,河北省2020年前3季度马铃薯月均价格呈现先上升后下降的趋势,且下降幅度明显;平均价格低于山东省及全国平均水平,与甘肃省的差距不大。分析表明,马铃薯的供给状况、市场需求、天气因素等是影响前3季度马铃薯价格变化的主要原因。最后,对第四季度以及2021年前3季度马铃薯的价格走势作出了预测。

关 键 词:马铃薯  前3季度  价格分析  价格预测

Analysis of the First Three Quarters of 2020 and Forecasting of Potato Price in Hebei Province
WEI Zizhen,WANG Zhe,ZHOU Fan.Analysis of the First Three Quarters of 2020 and Forecasting of Potato Price in Hebei Province[J].Vegetables,2020(12):64-70.
Authors:WEI Zizhen  WANG Zhe  ZHOU Fan
Institution:1. Collage of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China; 2. Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
Abstract:Abstract: Information system based on the wholesale market for agricultural products prices on the real-time monitoring data of the potato, potato prices in Hebei province as the research object in the fi rst three quarters of 2020, the transverse and longitudinal comparisons of the potato prices of the fi rst, second and third quarter in Hebei province as well as in the fi rst three quarters of the whole 2020 were conducted, and factors infl uencing the fl uctuations in the price of the potato were analyzed. The results showed that the average monthly price of potatoes in Hebei province in the fi rst three quarters of 2020 increased fi rst and then decreased, and the decrease was obvious. The average price was lower than that of Shandong province and the national average, and the gap with Gansu province was small. The analysis showed that potato supply, market demand and weather factors were the main factors affecting potato price changing in the fi rst three quarters. Lastly, the potato prices of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the fi rst three quarters of 2021 were predicted.
Keywords:Keywords: potato  fi rst three quarters  price analysis  price forecasting
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