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河北省2022年第一季度马铃薯市场形势分析及后市预测
引用本文:赵铭月,王 哲,刘悦婷,刘 静.河北省2022年第一季度马铃薯市场形势分析及后市预测[J].蔬菜,2022(6):51-54.
作者姓名:赵铭月  王 哲  刘悦婷  刘 静
作者单位:(河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北 保定 071000)
基金项目:基金项目:河北省现代农业产业技术体系薯类创新团队项目(HBCT2018080301)。
摘    要:依据全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统对马铃薯价格的实时监测数据,以河北省2022年第一季度马铃薯价格为研究对象,对其进行分析及预测,并对影响价格变动的因素进行总结。结果显示:2022年第一季度河北省马铃薯日均价格震荡运行,整体价格走势明显低于去年同期水平;季均价环比增长3.93%,同比下降20.60%,季均价格明显低于山东省、甘肃省及全国平均水平。分析结果表明,供需矛盾、节日因素和气温变化是影响河北省第一季度马铃薯价格波动的主要因素;从整体走势来看,受2021年马铃薯整体行情低迷影响,2022年马铃薯生产规模有所减少,预计2022年第二季度河北省马铃薯价格会略有波动,若不考虑天气和突发事件的不确定性影响,预计第三、四季度马铃薯价格有望高于2021年同期水平。

关 键 词:第一季度  河北省  马铃薯  价格分析  预测

Potato Market Situation Analysis and Future Forecast in the First Quarter of 2022 in Hebei Province
ZHAO Mingyue,WANG Zhe,LIU Yueting,LIU Jing.Potato Market Situation Analysis and Future Forecast in the First Quarter of 2022 in Hebei Province[J].Vegetables,2022(6):51-54.
Authors:ZHAO Mingyue  WANG Zhe  LIU Yueting  LIU Jing
Institution:(College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China)
Abstract:Abstract: Based on the real-time monitoring data of potato prices from the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System, potato prices in Hebei province in the fi rst quarter of 2022 were studied, analyzed and predicted, and the factors affecting price changes were summarized. The results showed that the average daily price of potatoes in Hebei province in the fi rst quarter of 2022 fl uctuated, and the overall price trend was signifi cantly lower than the level of the same period last year. The quarterly average price increased by 3.93% quarter-on-quarter and decreased by 20.60% year-on-year, with the quarterly average price signifi cantly lower than the average level in Shandong province, Gansu province and the country. Analysis of the results showed that the imbalance between supply and demand, holiday factors and temperature changes were the main factors affecting the fl uctuations in potato prices in Hebei province in the fi rst quarter. Viewing from the overall trend, the potato production scale in 2022 would reduce affected by the market downturn of overall potato in 2021, and it was expected that potato prices will fl uctuate slightly in the second quarter of 2022 in Hebei province. Regardless of the uncertainty of the weather and unexpected events, potato prices in the third and the forth quarter were expected to be higher than that of the same period in 2021.
Keywords:Keywords: fi rst quarter  Hebei province  potato  price analysis  forecast
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