基于ARIMA模型的我国大蒜价格预测

为减轻大蒜价格不规则波动对大蒜种植业以及相关加工企业等造成的不利影响，利用2004年1 月—2021年9月我国大蒜批发市场价格数据，运用ARIMA模型对我国大蒜市场价格作出预测。结果表明： 2021年10月—2022年12月我国大蒜市场整体价格比较平稳，维持在7.38元/kg左右，不会出现剧烈波动的情况，且平均价格较往年有下降趋势。建议重视科技力量在大蒜产业中的作用，延长大蒜产业链，稳定大蒜价格，以促进我国大蒜产业的发展。

Price Forecast of Garlic in China Based on ARIMA Mode

Abstract: In order to reduce the adverse impact of the irregular fluctuation of price of garlic on the garlic planting industry and related processing enterprises, the datas of garlic wholesale market from January 2004 to September 2021 were used to forecast the market price of garlic in China by using ARIMA mode. The results showed that the market price of garlic in China from October 2021 to December 2022 was relatively stable at about 7.38 yuan/kg, without drastic fluctuation, and the average price had a downward trend compared with previous years. It was suggested to strengthen the supporting function of science and technology in garlic industry, extend garlic industry chain and stabilize price of garlic, so as to promote the development of garlic industry in China.