大蒜价格形成机制研究——基于价格泡沫视角

通过总结2004～2018年我国大蒜价格的波动特征与规律,从供给量、成本变化、出口量等方面分析波动原因,运用SADF和GSADF方法检验并证实了存在多个周期性泡沫的假设。结果显示:2009～2011年和2016～2017年我国大蒜价格两次大幅度波动,供需基本面因素对价格波动的解释力不足,大蒜市场出现了2个正向泡沫,投机者的市场预期在泡沫存续期间发挥主导作用。科学防范价格泡沫对大蒜等小宗农产品定价机制的潜在影响,可以提升小宗农产品市场可持续发展水平。

Studies on Mechanism of Garlic Price Formation—based on Price Bubble Perspective

This paper analyzed the causes of fluctuations in supply quantity，cost changesand export quantity by summarizing the fluctuation characteristics and rules of garlic prices from 2004-2018 in China，and tested and confirmed the hypothesis for existence of multiple periodic bubbles with SADF and GSADF methods．The results showed that garlic prices in China fluctuated sharply twice in 2009-2011 and 2016-2017．The explaintory power of fundamental supply and demand factors for price fluctuations was inadequate．Two positive bubbles in garlic market presented，and speculators’expectations were playing a leading role during the bubbles duration．Scientific precaution for the potential impact on pricing mechanism of garlic price bubbles，etc.small agricultural products can raise the level of sustainable development of small agricultural products market．