甘蔗生理发育时间及生育期预测

利用云南省耿马农业气象观测站2007-2009年甘蔗品种＂粤糖8388＂生育期资料,依据作物生理发育时间的基本原理,研究了甘蔗各生育期的生理发育时间。结果表明,甘蔗发芽期、幼苗期、分蘖期和茎伸长期的生理发育时间分别为36.2、32.8、26.4和62.9 d。利用各生育期生理发育时间对2010年甘蔗生育期进行的预测结果表明,发芽期、幼苗期、分蘖期和茎伸长期的预测误差分别为7、3、6和15 d,相对误差分别为16.7%、6.8%、13.9%和12.4%,整个生育期的根均方差（RMSE）为14.2%,说明模型对预测甘蔗生育期具有一定的实用性。

Forecasting Growth and Development Stage of Sugarcane Based on Physiological Development Time

Based on the developmental data of sugarcane variety ＇Yuetang 8388＇ from 2007 to 2009 in Gengma agrometeorological observation station of Yunnan Province,the physiological development time（PDT） of sugarcane in different periods were studied by the basic theory of crop PDT.The results showed that the PDTs were 36.2,32.8,26.4 and 62.9 day in germination period,seedling,tillering and stem elongation period,respectively.The PDT of periods was used to simulate the development stage of 2010,the result showed that the simulation errors of germination,seedling,tillering and stem elongation period were 7,3,6,and 15 d,and the relative errors were 16.7%,6.8%,13.9% and 12.4%,respectively.The root mean square error（RMSE） of the whole period was 14.2%.The model was applicable for simulating sugarcane growth and development stage.