森林认证对全球林产品贸易影响实证分析

文中基于贸易引力模型，以73个开展森林认证的国家（地区）2015—2020年林产品进出口贸易数据为被解释变量、森林认证证书数量为核心解释变量，结合经济规模、经济发展水平、地理距离、森林资源禀赋和加入WTO、自由贸易区协定签署情况等影响因素，对森林认证与林产品贸易间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:一国所拥有的森林认证证书数量增加能够显著促进林产品出口和进口；若贸易双方经济规模较大且经济发展水平相当，均加入WTO或签署自由贸易协定也会促进该国林产品出口和进口；本国森林资源丰富有助于林产品出口，同时会减少林产品进口；双边距离过远则会阻碍两国林产品出口和进口。建议我国完善顶层设计，持续推进森林认证，通过深化与国际组织和其他国家森林认证体系的交流与合作，保护森林、改善环境，实现可持续发展。

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Forest Certification on Global Forest Product Trade

The paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between forest certification and forest product trade using the trade gravity model, with the trade data from 2015 to 2020 of 73 countries promoting forest certification as the explained variable, the number of forest certificates as the core explanation variables, and the economic scale, economic development level, geographic distance, forest resources endowment and the accession to the WTO, free trade area agreement signed as influence factors. The results show that an increase of the forest certificate number in a country can significantly promote the export and import of forest products; if the two trade partners are large in economic scale and similar in the level of economic development, signing WTO or free trade agreement will promote the export and import of forest products; forest resource endowment will help export forest products, while reducing imports; and long distance between trade partners will reduce the export and import of forest products. It is suggested that China should improve top-level design, continue to promote forest certification, and deepen exchange and cooperation with international organizations and forest certification schemes, so as to protect forests, improve the environment and thus achieve the goal of sustainable development.