中国纸浆进口风险评价及结构多元化分析

中国造纸产业原料基础薄弱因而高度依赖纸浆进口, 降低进口风险、实现进口的多元化是保障产业稳定发展的重要议题。文中借鉴能源供给安全指数建立了纸浆进口风险指数和结构优化模型, 用以评价中国纸浆进口风险状况以促进进口更加多元化。对进口风险评价结果表明, 木浆的进口风险整体变化平稳、波动幅度较小, 废纸的进口风险呈下降趋势。对纸浆进口结构优化分析结果说明, 通过调整进口各国纸浆的数量可以有效降低进口风险。造纸产业应分散进口来源、降低进口集中度、减少从高风险国家的进口量以降低木浆和废纸的进口风险, 实现纸浆的稳定供给。

Analysis on Risk Evaluation and Structure Diversification of China's Pulp Import

The paper-making industry in China is highly dependent on pulp import due to the lack of raw materials. Therefore, reducing import risks and diversifying imports were crucial for guaranteeing the industry's stable development. This paper established risk indexes for pulp import and a structure optimization model in reference with security indexes for energy supply, so as to evaluate China's risks of importing pulp and analyze methods for import diversification. The evaluation of import risks suggested that the risks for importing wood pulp presented a steady change trend with relatively narrow fluctuation while the risks for importing waste paper tended to decline. The structure optimization model for pulp import showed that import risks may be effectively reduced by regulating the quantity of pulp imported from other countries. It is necessary for the paper-making industry to decentralize sources of import, decrease the degree of import concentration, and reduce the import volume from high-risk countries in order to downscale the risks in the imports of wood pulp and waste paper and realize stable supply of pulp.