俄乌地缘政治冲突对全球针叶材供需格局的影响

文中构建涵盖19个经济体的全球针叶材区域价格均衡模型，模拟分析俄乌冲突引发的全球针叶材供需格局变化与调整。结果表明，俄乌冲突导致显著的贸易转移效应，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯2国对欧盟针叶材出口合计减少900万m3，对中国、埃及、土耳其出口合计增加543万m3；乌克兰对欧盟出口增加255万m3，对中国、土耳其出口则合计减少183万m3。俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的中国市场份额将分别达到29%和3%。俄白2国退出欧盟市场造成6%的供应空缺，而乌克兰可以填补其中的一半。俄乌冲突造成木材贸易出超方和入超方利益分化，全球整体福利受损，俄罗斯福利下降约1亿美元，中国、美国、日本等木材贸易赤字方分别减少4 300万美元、2 400万美元、600万美元，加拿大、欧盟、新西兰等木材贸易盈余方分别增加2 700万美元、2 200万美元、1 300万美元，全球总福利下降2亿美元。

Impacts of Russia-Ukraine Geopolitical Conflict on Global Coniferous Wood Supply-Demand Pattern

The paper sets up a spatial price equilibrium model for global coniferous wood in 19 economies, to simulate and analyze the changes in global coniferous wood supply-demand pattern which might be initiated by Russia-Ukraine conflict. The results show that the conflict gives rise to significant effects of trade diversion. The wood export of Russia and Belarus to EU drops by 9 million m3, while the exports to China, Egypt and Turkey increase by 5.43 million m3 in total; Ukrainian exports to EU increase by 2.55 million m3, and however its exports to China and Turkey decrease by 1.83 million m3 in total. Russian and Belarusian take up 29% and 3%, respectively, of China’s market share. The 6% wood market share gap in EU, which is left by the withdrawal of Russia and Belarus, will be filled in half by Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine conflict brings about diverging welfare effect for wood deficit economy and wood surplus economy, but world total welfare deteriorates. Russian welfare decreases by 100 million USD. China, USA and Japan as the net wood importers lose 43 million USD, 24 million USD, and 6 million USD, respectively. Among net wood exporters, Canada, EU and New Zealand gain 27 million USD, 22 million USD, 13 million USD, respectively. The world total welfare decreases by 200 million USD.