基于库兹涅茨曲线的中国南方集体林区森林质量转型动因分析

森林转型理论提供了全球可能经历的森林恢复途径，但已有研究主要关注森林数量。文中从广义上提出森林多维转型并重点关注森林质量转型，从森林生长性、树种多样性、结构稳定性和森林健康性4个方面对森林质量进行衡量，通过构建森林转型影响因素分析框架对中国南方集体林区10个省（区）（浙江、安徽、福建、江西、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、贵州、云南）的森林质量变化进行实证研究，结果表明:南方集体林区森林资源变动是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假设仍需进一步考察，其变化受多因素驱动影响；目前虽已呈现出转型趋势，但不甚明显，实现森林数量和质量双增仍有很大空间。据此，提出应由单一追求森林数量转变为注重森林质量、由过分追求森林经济效益转变为注重森林综合功能发挥、由传统林业经营方式转变为科技化经营管理模式等建议。

Drivers of Forest Quality Transition of Collective Forest Areas in Southern China Based on Kuznets Curve

The forest transition theory provides the possible ways for global forest rehabilitation, but the existing research pays more attention to forest quantity. The paper puts forward the forest multi-dimensional transition in a broad sense and focuses on the forest quality transition to measure the forest quality from the 4 aspects of forest growth forest vitality, tree species diversity, structure stability and health status. Then the paper establishes an analysis framework of drivers on forest transition, and makes the empirical study of the changes in forest quality in 10 provinces (autonomous region), i.e., Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan. The results show that whether the forest resources change in the southern collective forest area meet the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) assumption needs to be further investigated, and its changes are driven by multiple factors; although there presents a trend of transition, it is not obvious. And therefore there is still a large space to achieve the increase both in the quantity and quality of forests. Based on this, it is proposed to turn the attention from mere pursuit of forest quantity to forest quality, from excessive pursuit of forest economic benefits to the multiple functions of forest, and from conventional forest management to innovative science-based forest management.