加拿大森林资源环境库兹涅茨曲线验证——基于林木生长周期的视角

利用加拿大1990—2010年林产品产量数据, 采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型, 考察加拿大经济增长与森林资源采伐量之间的关系。与以往研究不同的是, 在回归模型中加入了代表林木生长周期的时间序列变量, 以探讨林木生长周期对森林资源采伐量的影响。结果显示, 加拿大森林资源采伐量与经济增长存在倒U型曲线关系, 且林木生长周期对曲线形状的影响显著。从研究结果得到的政策启示是, 在设置森林采伐限额时应注意林木的生长周期, 在林木初生长期应降低采伐限额来保护幼树, 从而为采伐迹地天然更新提供充足的种源和条件。

A Study of Canadian Forest Resource Environmental Kuznets Curve: From the Perspective of Forest Growth Cycle

By using Environmental Kuznets model, this paper studied the relationship between economic growth and forest harvesting volume by taking advantage of the latest data on forest product production in Canada from 1990 to 2010. The time series variables representing the growth cycle were added to the regression model to discuss its effect on the forest harvesting volume, which is different from previous studies. We found that economic growth presented an inverted U-shaped curve relation with forest harvesting volume and the growth cycle had a significant effect on the shape of the curve. The empirical results showed that forest cutting quota should be related to forest growth cycle, and the quota should be decreased at the incipient stage of forest growth to protect young tress and provide sufficient provenance and condition for the nature regeneration in slash sites.