森林碳汇环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及其影响因素分析

文中基于2004-2020年中国省际面板数据，运用环境库兹涅茨模型实证分析森林碳汇与经济发展水平之间的关系，通过面板数据灰色关联模型测算森林碳汇与各影响因素之间的关联度。研究发现：森林碳汇与经济发展水平之间的关系呈“N”型曲线；从整体上看，各影响因素与森林碳汇的灰色关联度都较高，从大到小依次为劳动要素投入、造林面积、森林采伐、林业产业发展水平、营林固定资产投资、森林受灾程度；具体来看，全国4大林区森林碳汇与各影响因素的灰色关联度具有差异性。建议提高森林资源经营管理水平，完善森林碳汇市场，促进林业产业结构升级，以助力林业经济高质量发展。

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Forest Carbon Sequestration

Based on China’s inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2020, this paper uses the Environmental Kuznets Model to empirically analyze the relationship between forest carbon sequestration and economic development level, and calculates the correlation between forest carbon sequestration and various influencing factors using the grey correlation model of panel data. The study finds that the relationship between forest carbon sequestration and economic development level presents a “N” curve. On the whole, the grey correlation degree between each influencing factor and forest carbon sequestration is relatively high, and could be ranked from the highest to the lowest as labor factor input, afforestation area, forest logging, forestry industry development level, fixed forestry assets investment and forest disaster degree. Specifically, the four largest forest regions in China are different in the grey correlation degree of forest carbon sequestration and various influencing factors. It is suggested to improve the forest resources management, regulate and expand the forest carbon market, and upgrade the forestry industrial structure.