中国林产工业产业关联与波及效应分析——基于投入产出模型的国际比较

文中基于中国、美国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚6国2000—2014年投入产出数据，通过测算中间需求率、中间投入率、感应度系数和影响力系数，对林产工业产业关联与波及效应进行动态比较分析。研究结果表明:相较于其他国家，中国木材加工业、造纸业的中间产品型产业特征明显，对国民经济贡献程度较高，但同时也面临成为“瓶颈产业”的风险；中国家具制造业的最终需求型产业性质显著，受整体经济发展的拉动作用明显弱于其他国家。总体而言，中国林产工业对国民经济的推动作用整体上高于国民经济发展对其的拉动作用。需要重点提升木材加工业、家具制造业整体产业链竞争力，加大科研创新投入力度以提升产出效率，并进一步提高家具制造业整体产品的附加值。

Correlation Analysis and Spread Effect of China's Forest Product Industry: International Comparison Based on Input-Output Model

Based on the input-output data of China, the United States, Russia, India, Brazil and Indonesia in 2000-2014, this paper analyzes the industrial correlation and spread effect of forest products industry by measuring the intermediate demand rate, the intermediate input rate, the influence coefficient and the inductance coefficient. The research results show that compared with other countries, China's wood processing and papermaking industries have obvious characteristics of intermediate product, which have a greater contribution to the national economy but face the risk of becoming a "bottleneck industry". China's furniture manufacturing industry has the characteristic of final demand industry, but the pulling effect of the overall economic development on the industry is significantly weaker than that in other countries. Overall, the promoting effect of China's forest product industry is higher than the pulling effect by the national economy. Efforts should be made to improve the industrial chain competitiveness of the wood processing and furniture manufacturing industries, increase investment in scientific research and innovation to enhance the output efficiency, and achieve higher value addition of the furniture products.