Can predicted mountain pine beetle net production be used to improve stand prioritization for management?

Stand-level planning of lodgepole pine management can benefit from the use of mountain pine beetle susceptibility-risk model analyses to assign treatment priority. Priority is currently assigned based solely on relative levels of expected volume loss in the event of a mountain pine beetle outbreak. We evaluated the possibility to predict the relative contribution of brood beetles, by infested stands, to the next beetle generation. Existing data were used to develop generalized parameters for inclusion in predictive models of stand-level mortality and brood production. Model output for independent stands achieved a highly significant relationship with measured outcomes of brood productivity, indicating that relative levels of brood production can be predicted and incorporated into decision-models.