Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region |
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Authors: | P K Joshi Asha Rawat Sheena Narula Vinay Sinha |
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Institution: | P. K. Joshi Asha Rawat Sheena Narula Vinay Sinha Department of Natural Resources, TERI University, New Delhi 110070, India. |
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Abstract: | Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate
change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (temperature, precipitation, drought,
wind etc.). Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic
consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700–4500 m). 100 randomly
selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model), genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes
were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate
conifer, Subtropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests). Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios,
current scenario, changed precipitation (8% increase), changed temperature (1.07°C increase), and both changed temperature
and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was
observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer
showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests
without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual distribution was maintained
and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the
likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies
can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification
and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector. |
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Keywords: | Climate change forest cover types shift western Himalaya genetic algorithm |
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