| 立木生物量方程的优度评价和精度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾伟生,唐守正.立木生物量方程的优度评价和精度分析[J].林业科学,2011,47(11). |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾伟生 唐守正 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所 北京100091 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(31070485) |
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| 摘 要： | 以建立东北落叶松和南方马尾松立木生物量模型为例,对模型的优度评价和精度分析进行专题研究。首先,在综合分析各种常用模型评价指标的基础上,提出6项基本评价指标,并通过对2个树种的生物量模型进行评价,证明是可行和有效的;然后,基于线性回归估计的基本假设及其置信区间计算公式,提出适合立木生物量模型预估的条件均值和单一预估值置信区间的估计方法,并确定2个树种生物量模型的置信区间;最后,通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行随机再抽样试验,结果表明采用检验样本进行适用性检验的做法不可取,应该利用全部样本(不分建模样本和检验样本)来建立模型,它能充分利用样本信息,使模型的预估误差最小。
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| 关 键 词： | 立木生物量 相对生长方程 拟合优度 模型评价 蒙特卡罗模拟 预估精度 置信区间 |
Goodness Evaluation and Precision Analysis of Tree Biomass Equations |
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| Zeng Weisheng,Tang Shouzheng.Goodness Evaluation and Precision Analysis of Tree Biomass Equations[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2011,47(11). |
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| Authors: | Zeng Weisheng Tang Shouzheng |
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| Institution: | Zeng Weisheng Tang Shouzheng (Research Institute of Forest Resources Information Techniques,CAF Beijing 100091) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the establishment of single-tree biomass equations for larch (Larix) of the northeast and Masson Pine (Pinus massoniana) of the south in China as the example, the goodness evaluation and precision analysis were studied in this paper. Firstly, based on the comprehensive analysis of various statistical indices for model evaluation, six essential evaluation indices were presented which proved to be feasible and effective through evaluating the tree biomass models of two species above. Secondly, accordin... |
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| Keywords: | single-tree biomass allometric equation goodness-of-fit model evaluation Monte Carlo simulation prediction precision confidence interval |
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