影响黑龙江省夏季林火的关键气象因子分析

利用2001～2009年黑龙江省夏季林火资料和同期林区气象观测资料,采用主成分分析方法确定了月降水量和月无雨日数、月平均温度及14时月平均风速是影响夏季林火的关键因子,其中降水量是最重要的影响因子,其次是温度因子和动力因子,夏季的温湿状况以及动力条件是决定夏季林火是否发生的关键;根据温湿因子综合分析发现,夏季林火多发生在暖干型气候背景下,即气温高降水少的月份,而且这种形势下发生的火灾往往持续时间长、过火面积大、造成的损失严重。

The Analysis of the Meteorological Key Factors and Effect on Summer Forest Fire in Heilongjiang Province

Based on the data of summer forest fire and meteorological from 2001 -2009, the meteorological key factors and effect on summer forest fire in Heilongjiang province were studied by using Principal Component Analysis method （PCA）. The results indicated that the monthly mean precipitation, days of no precipitation, mean temperature and wind velocity at 14pm were the key factors on summer forest fires. Among these, the precipitation was the most important factor, followed by the temperature and dynamic factor, which suggested the temperature, humidity and dynamic conditions in summer were the key factors for occurring of forest fire. Comprehensive analysis based on temperature and humidity illustrated that fires occurred generally in the warm - dry pattern when it was high - temperature and precipitation was rare in the month. Under this situation, fires were often of long duration, large burned area, causing serious losses.