利用马尔科夫过程模拟和预测南瓮河自然保护区景观的动态演变

在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,利用2000年Landsat ETM和2010年Landsat TM两个时期的假彩色合成影像作为信息源,获取南瓮河自然保护区景观类型的转化数据,确定相应的转移概率矩阵,应用马尔科夫过程模拟景观的动态演变情况和未来演变的趋势。结果表明,南瓮河国家级自然保护区景观结构和功能正在发生着迅速的转变,森林和永久性河流面积有明显的减少趋势,而草本沼泽和森林沼泽有明显的增加趋势,森林群落逐渐退化。南瓮河自然保护区湿地正在向沼泽化和荒漠化演变。

Simulation Prediction of Dynamic Evolution of the Landscape of Nanwenghe Nature Reserve by using Markov Process

Based on remote sensing and GIS ,taking false color composite image data of Landsat ETM in 2000 and Landsat TM in 2010 as the source of information ,the conversion data of landscape types of Nanwenghe Nature Re-serve were obtained ;the corresponding transition probability matrix was determined ;the dynamic changes of land-scape the trend in the evolution in the future by applying Markeov model were simulated .Result shows that land-scape and function structure in Nanwenghe Nature Reserve change rapidly ;the areas of forest permanent rivers decrease obviously ;herbaceous swamp forest swamp increase obviously ;forest community show a trend of degra-dation gradually .Nanwenghe Nature Reserve wetland evolved to marsh and desert .