Dynamic Change Analysis and Forecast of Forestry-based Industrial Structure in China Based on Grey Systems Theory

ABSTRACT

The industrial structure of forestry-based can promote and drive the sustainable development of forestry. Based on the databases of Chinese Forestry Statistics, this paper applies the grey theory to calculate the correlation degree of forestry industrial structure in different years and further explores the changes of the forestry-based industrial structure in China. The results show that the scale of forestry-based industry expands unceasingly, the structure is characterized by “the secondary sector taking the lead, followed by the primary and tertiary sectors” during 2006–2015. The results of GM (1,1) prediction show that China’s forestry-based industries will secure a stable growth from 2017–2025, but it does not mean that the industrial structure will be optimized in the future. The structure is still unreasonable and incongruous, the forestry-based industry is growing fast but not well. This may imply that the optimized structures of China’s forestry-based industry can promote the high quality and sustainable development of forestry and even socio-economic development. Hence, it still needs much improvement on the efficiency of synergy, and to underline the need for market regulation and state macro-control in the dynamic process of forestry-based industrial structure adjustment.