气候变化情景下毛竹潜在分布及动态预测

为探究毛竹的潜在分布及其动态变化，并确定对其分布起主导作用的环境变量，文章基于MaxEnt预测模型，利用环境变量图层及316个毛竹分布点数据研究毛竹地理分布的变化。结果显示：1）限制毛竹分布的主要环境变量为最干月降水量、年均降水量、最冷月最低温、年平均温、温度年较差和海拔；2）当前毛竹的潜在适生区主要位于中国东南部，与亚热带季风气候区大致重叠，高适生区主要位于总适生区的东部和西北部；3）在未来气候情景下，毛竹总适生区面积有所缩减，各不同等级适生区面积变化大，其中高适生区面积大幅度缩减。研究获得的毛竹适生区变化趋势可为毛竹培育、引种以及入侵防治提供参考。

Potential Distribution and Dynamic Prediction of Phyllostachys edulis under the Scenarios of Climate Change

In order to explore the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis and its dynamic changes, and reveal the environmental variables that play a key role in its distribution, this paper uses environmental variable layer and 316 distribution points of P. edulis to explore the change in its geographical distribution based on the model of MaxEnt. The results show that: 1) The main environmental variables limiting the distribution of P. edulis are the precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual mean temperature, temperature annual range and elevation; 2)The potentially suitable region of P. edulis is mainly located in the southeast of China, which is nearly overlapped with the area of subtropical monsoon climate, and the highly suitable area is mainly situated in the east and northwest parts of the potentially suitable region; and 3) In the future climate scenario, the total suitable region of P. edulis may be reduced, while the different suitable areas may also change greatly in area. Among them, the highly suitable area will be greatly decreased. The change trend of P. edulis suitable area under the climate change can provide references for the cultivation, introduction and invasion treatment of P. edulis.