气候变化下沙冬青适宜分布区预测

通过135个地理分布数据，利用MaxEnt生态位模型，选择19项环境因子预测沙冬青未来的分布格局及面积。结果表明:1)模型模拟的训练集和测试集的AUC值分别为0.990和0.988，模型的预测结果可靠；2)沙冬青主要分布于内蒙古西部地区、宁夏北部、甘肃东部地区以及蒙古国南部；3)模型模拟当前沙冬青的分布面积为6.3×10⁵ km²，模拟2050年沙冬青的分布面积为9.1×10⁵ km²，沙冬青分布范围和种群面积将呈增加趋势；4)影响沙冬青分布的主要因子为最冷季降水量、最冷月最低气温、最热季降水量、年平均气温、最湿月降水量和年降水。研究结果不仅提供了沙冬青适生分布的划分，也为沙冬青调查与监测提供了重要的科学基础。

Predictionof the Geographic Distribution of Ammopiptanthus mongolicus under Climate Change

Ammopiptanthus mongolicus is the only evergreen broad-leaved shrub in the desert areas of Asia.It is of great scientific value to predict the potential distribution area and suitable distribution area of this plant species.Based on 135 geographical distribution data,19 environmental factors were selected by MaxEnt niche model to predict the future distribution pattern and area of A.mongolicus.The results show that 1)the AUC values of training set and test set simulated by the model were 0.990 and 0.988,indicating the reliable results of MaxEnt model.2)A.mongolicus was mainly distributed in Western Inner Mongolia,Northern Ningxia,Eastern Gansu and Southern Mongolia.3)The current distribution area of A.mongolicus was 6.3×105km^2,and the distribution area of A.mongolicus in 2050 would be 9.1×105km^2.The distribution range and area would increase in the future.4)The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of A.mongolicus were the precipitation in the coldest season,the lowest temperature in the coldest month,the precipitation of the hottest season,the annual mean temperature,the precipitation of the most humid month,and annual precipitation.The results of this study not only provide the division of the suitable distribution of A.mongolicus,but also provide important scientific significance for the investigation and monitoring of A.mongolicus.