未来5年中国猪肉市场形势展望

受2013年能繁母猪存栏保持高位影响,2014年上半年猪肉产量和进口量分别增3.0%和9.2%,同时消费低于预期,导致生猪和猪肉价格连续4个月下跌并创近3年来新低,未来猪价将进入新的周期。未来5年中国猪肉产量年均增速为2.1%,到2018年猪肉产量将达到6 080万t,消费量将达到6 130万t。受生产成本上涨和生产周期影响,未来2年猪肉价格将处于上涨周期。猪肉进口量将稳中有增,到2018年达到70万t左右。养殖效率、疫病、国际市场和生态环境等因素将影响未来猪肉市场形势。

Outlook of China＇s Pork Market in the Next Five Years

For higher inventory of breeding sows in 2013, the output and import of pork in the first half of 2014 were increased by 3.0% and 9.2% respectively, while consumption was lower than expected, which resulted in the prices fall of pigs and pork for four consecutive months and live pig and pork prices reaching the lowest level in the past three years, and future price of pigs would enter a new cycle. The average annual increasing rate of China＇s pork production would be 2.1% in the next five years, and pork output and consumption would reach 60.80 million tons and 61.30 million tons in 2018 respectively. For rising production costs and production cycle, pork price will show increasing trend in the next two years. Pork imports will steadily increase, and reach about 0.70 million tons by 2018. Breeding efficiency, epidemic disease, international market, ecological environment and other factors will influence the future of pork market.