基于GIS的广东地区福寿螺的潜在时空分布及对稻田的危害风险

利用GIS技术,结合福寿螺生长发育的特点和广东地区水稻的种植分布情况,预测福寿螺在广东地区的潜在时空分布及其危害风险.结果表明:广东地区存在5种福寿螺潜在生境,分别是:螺和卵都能存活且卵能孵化螺能发育;螺卵存活、螺能发育但卵不孵化;螺存活但不发育、卵不孵化;螺冬眠且不产卵;螺、卵均不能存活.5种生境从南到北依次排列,并且分布范围随着季节的变化而变化.福寿螺适宜生境夏季分布广、冬季分布窄,夏季向北扩展,冬季向南收缩.冬季粤北山区小部分地区福寿螺不能存活,5—10月全省均适宜螺及其卵的生长发育.就潜在分布区而言,全省16.68%地区处于高度发生区,中度发生区也占54.25%.以稻田的危害风险为例,结合水稻分布区的状况评价了福寿螺可能带来的危害风险等级,其中重度风险区占全省面积的21.75%,主要集中于湛江、茂名、阳江等地的稻区;中度风险区集中在广东中部的水稻区,占63.16%;轻度风险区只占14.47%.

Potential Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Golden Apple Snail and the Harm Risk on Paddy Fields in Guangdong Based on GIS Technology

The potential distribution and harm risk of golden apple snail,Pomacea canalicultata,on rice in Guangdong were identified and predicted based on GIS technology according to the temperature which was suitable for survival development of golden apple snails,and distribution in rice planting areas.The suitable habitat was widespread in summer and shrunk in winter,and it extended northward in summer and narrowed southward in winter.Golden apple snails could not survive in some north mountain areas of Guangdong during winter time,but both snails and their eggs could develop everywhere from May to October.As for the potential distribution,high and moderate occurrence region occupied 16.68% and 54.25% of the total area of Guangdong,respectively.Take the harm of the snails on rice as an example,potential risk level of golden apple snail was evaluated in paddy fields in Guangdong.The results showed that regions with serious damage risk accounted for 21.75% of the total area and mainly covered Zhanjiang,Maoming,Yangjiang areas.Moderate risky region which was mainly in paddy fields in central part of Guangdong occupied 63.16%,slight risky region occupied 14.47% of the paddy fields.