基于生态足迹的土地生态承载力动态变化研究──以成都市为例(英文)

基于成都市1998~2008年统计数据,运用生态足迹法、生态承载力以及GIS空间分析法,从时空两个尺度对成都市这10年间的生态足迹与生态承载力进行了计算,并据此对2009~2019年生态足迹和生态承载力进行模拟分析。结果表明,1998~2008年成都市土地生态足迹和生态赤字数值逐年升高,区域差异显著;在其所辖的9区4市6县中,中心城区生态赤字一直处于较高水平,生态赤字增幅以双流县、崇州市、青羊区最为显著,且高生态赤字区域在空间上呈现扇状分布;成都市经济社会与自然生态系统之间处于非持续发展状态且生态足迹数值在空间分布不均。

Dynamic Changes of Land Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on the Ecological Footprint——By the Case Study of Chengdu City

Chengdu City is in the period of rapid urbanization and industrialization,and the disturbance derived from human activities on environment is increasing remarkablely in recent 20 years.The pressure on environment,economy and population is also increasing and land use in Chengdu has changed enormously.As structure and function of land ecological system change obviously,sustainable development of land productivity has been an important goal and strategic task from now on,and it is necessary to systematically research land ecological carrying capacity based on ecological footprint.The ecological footprint of Chengdu City in the past ten years was calculated and analyzed from the spatial and temporal aspects according to statistical data from 1998 to 2008,as per ecological footprint method,ecological carrying capacity and the GIS spatial analysis method,and regression analysis method.The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity values from 2009 to 2019 in Chengdu City were predicted through calculation results in the past ten years.The results show that the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of land use from 1998 to 2008 increased in Chengdu City.The ecological deficit of land use within the city center was in high levels in the past ten years,and the ecological footprint kept raising,especially in areas,such as Shuangliu,Chongzhou,Qingyang among 9 city areas,4 counties and 6 districts in Chengdu City.There is fanlike distribution of ecological deficit of land use.Analysis shows that the social and natural ecological system is uneven distribution,which is not in sustainable development situation.The results of the study show that the economic,social and natural ecological system in Chengdu City is not sustainable,and the ecological footprint is uneven distribution.The analysis of the dynamic change of land ecological carrying capacity in Chengdu City is very important for city government in the process of the vigorous development in new Tianfu Xinqu,and redevelopment in the northern part of this city.