贵州省石漠化敏感性的动态演变与模拟预测（英文）

石漠化敏感性评价是为了识别容易发生石漠化的区域,以评价石漠化对人类活动的敏感程度。根据石漠化的形成机制,分析石漠化敏感性的区域分异规律,明确石漠化问题可能发生的地区范围与可能程度。在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,该研究以利用贵州省1∶50000地形图和2000年的TM影像,结合贵州省水文地质图,土壤图,地质地貌图,岩组图,政区图以及其他地理基础信息为数据源,生成了贵州省1962年和2000年石漠化的敏感度数据,确定相应的状态转移矩阵,半应用马尔科夫过程模拟石漠化敏感度的动态演变过程和未来演变趋势。在贵州省各石漠化敏感类型中,只有不敏感类型面积在下降,从1962年占该贵国土面积的61.35%下降为2000年的55.55%,同时各石漠化敏感度类型之间相互转换,面积增加幅度最大的是中度敏感类型。预测表明：在未来几十年中,贵州省不敏感地区面积将呈明显下降趋势,中度敏感类型面积呈明显上升趋势,轻度敏感类型面积变化基本趋于平稳,而高度敏感类型和极敏感类型面积都有小幅度上升,说明贵州省石漠化危险程度在加剧。

Dynamic Change and Simulation and Prediction of the Karst Rocky Desertification Sensitivity in Guizhou Province

Sensitivity evaluation of rocky desertification is to recognize the areas prone to be rock-deserted,so as to assess the sensitivity degree of rocky desertification to human activities.To perform the sensitivity evaluation of rocky desertification,we should be on the basis of the mechanism of rocky desertification formation for analyzing its regional distribution difference in the sensitivity and further for finding out the rocky desertification-susceptive areas and their possible degrees.Employing remote sensing and geological information system techniques,we regarded the 1∶ 50 000 topographic map and the TM image in 2000 of Guizhou Province,together with the hydrologic map,soil map,geologic map,rock formation map,administrative map and other geological information as data sources to generate the degree data of rocky desertification sensitivity of Guizhou Province in 1962 and 2000,based on which we determined the corresponding degree transfer matrix and adopted Markov model to simulate the dynamic change process of rocky desertification sensitivity and its future evolution trend.In various sensitivity types of rocky desertification in Guizhou Province,only the insensitive type showed a declined acreage,from the proportion of total land acreage of 61.35% in 1962 to 55.55% in 2000.Various sensitivity types inter-conversed,resultantly the acreage of mildly sensitive type increased most.The prediction results showed that the acreage of insensitive type of rocky desertification in Guizhou Province will assume a remarkable decline trend,of mildly sensitive type will present a remarkably increasing trend and of slightly sensitive type basically will maintain a stable level in the future tens of years.Acreages of both highly sensitive and extremely sensitive type of rocky desertification expanded to some extent,suggesting that the rocky desertification risk in Guizhou Province is in an aggravating process.