稻茬小麦纹枯病发生流行程度中长期预测技术初探

通过对稻茬小麦纹枯病2001²011年发生情况研究分析,选取年前11月下旬病株率s(%)、102011年发生情况研究分析,选取年前11月下旬病株率s(%)、10¹2月雾日数(d)、1212月雾日数(d)、12²月日照时数(h)、32月日照时数(h)、3⁵月份降雨量(mm)4个预测因子,建立病害发生程度中长期预测模式,历史回测符合率98.5%,2012年经预测检验,符合率95.9%,与发生实况基本一致。

A preliminary research on the medium and long term prediction technique for epidemic degree of wheat sharp eyespot in wheat following rice cropping system

Occurrence of wheat sharp eyespot in wheat following rice cropping system was analyzed from the year of 2001 to 2011,in which 4 predictive factor,such as disease incidence of the last ten-day of November of the previous year, fog days from October to December,sunshine duration from December to February of next year,rainfall from March to May,were selected to build a model for long term prediction of epidemic degree. Result showed that the coincidence rate back to the test was 98. 5% and predictive consequence was in line with occurrence of wheat sharp eyespot according to the test of the year 2012.