基于耦合协调模型的安徽省城镇化发展与土地生态安全关系评价研究

城镇化是我国社会经济发展的必然产物,土地生态安全是生态文明建设的重要内容之一,城镇化进程的加快使得土地生态安全问题受到越来越多的关注。文章基于熵权法和耦合协调度模型分析安徽省2000—2018年城镇化发展与土地生态安全综合评价指数和耦合协调度,利用灰色预测模型进行预测。结果表明:(1)安徽省城镇化和土地生态安全发展水平在2000—2018年呈明显的上升趋势,现阶段属于土地生态安全滞后型;(2)城镇化和土地生态安全综合评价指数稳步增加,耦合度为拮抗状态,两系统耦合协调类型从极度失调衰退逐渐演变为初级协调发展;(3)预测2019—2023年安徽省城镇化和土地生态安全耦合协调度呈稳步上升的发展趋势,在2023年可能达到良好协调发展的水平。为推动安徽省城镇化与土地生态安全协调发展水平,建议优化产业结构,转变经济发展方式、加大环保投入、树立一体化发展理念等。

Evaluation of the Relationship between Urbanization Development and Land Ecological Security in Anhui Province Based on the Coupling Coordination Model

Urbanization is an inevitable product of social and economic development,and land ecological security is one of the important contents of the construction of ecological civilization.The acceleration of the process of urbanization has made land ecological security more and more concerned.Based on the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model,this article analyzes the comprehensive evaluation index and coupling coordination degree of urbanization development and land ecological security in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2018,and uses the gray prediction model to predict.The results show that:(1)Anhui Province urbanization and the development level of land ecological security shows an obvious upward trend from 2000 to 2018,and it is the lagging type of land ecological security at this stage;(2)The comprehensive evaluation index of urbanization and land ecological security has steadily increased,the coupling degree is in an antagonistic state,and the two systems are coupled and coordinated,the type has gradually evolved from extreme imbalance and re-cession to primary coordinated development;(3)It is predicted that the degree of coordination between urbanization and land ecological security in Anhui Province will steadily increase from 2019 to 2023,and it may reach a level of good coordinated development in 2023.In order to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and land ecological security in Anhui Province,it is recommended to optimize the industrial structure,transform the economic development mode,increase environmental protection investment,and establish an integrated development concept.