基于ArcView GIS的松材线虫传入云南风险评估*

 根据国际粮农组织（Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations，FAO） 的国际植物检疫措施标准－检疫性有害生物风险分析（Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests Including Analysis of Environmental Risks and Living Modified Organisms）以及欧洲和地中海地区植物保护组织（European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation，EPPO）的有害生物风险评估方案，应用美国环境系统研究所（ESRI）开发的地理信息系统（Geographic Information System, GIS）软件ArcView3.2对云南省129个县（市、区）的年平均气温、年平均降雨、日照、寄主分布和媒介昆虫等信息进行分析，对松材线虫（Bursaphelenchus xylophilus）进入可能性、定殖可能性和经济影响等方面进行了风险评估（Pest Risk Assessment, PRA）。划定松材线虫病发生低风险区2县、松材线虫病发生中度风险区20县（市、区）、松材线虫病发生较高风险区49县（市、区），其余县58县（市、区）为松材线虫病发生高度风险区。划定云南省北纬26°以南地区为重点防护区。并绘制寄主分布图、年平均气温图、松墨天牛分布图等风险评估地图。

Pest Risk Assessment for Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Introduced to Yunnan Based on ArcView GIS

Synthesizing the datum of the annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, sunlight, conifer distribution and the vector insect Monochamus alternatus distribution of the 129 counties （cities） in Yunnan via the GIS system of ArcView3.2 which developed by ESRI, the Pest Risk Assessment （PRA） of B. xylophilus introduced to Yunnan was done. The results showed that 2 counties were in low degree risk, 20 counties were in risk, 49 counties were in higher degree risk and 58 counties were in the highest degree risk. The area to the south of north latitude 26° in Yunnan was considered as the priority protection area to B. xylophilus. This pest risk assessment was carried out in accordance with the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures-Pest Risk Analysis for Quarantine Pests Including Analysis of Environmental Risks and Living Modified Organisms （ FAO, Rome, 2004 ）. The risk posed by the nematode, B. xylophilus, to conifers in Yunnan was assessed using an OEPP/EPPO pest risk assessment scheme. The assessment reviewed information concerning the Entry potential, Establishment potential and Economic impact assessment. A set of PRA maps were constructed with ArcView3.2, comprising a host distribution map, an annual average air temperature map and a M. alternatus distribution map of Yunnan.