自然灾害对山东省粮食产量影响的实证分析

以山东省1978~2014年自然灾害及粮食生产的数据资料为依据,运用灰色关联分析方法对二者之间的关系进行了统计分析,得到以下结论:第一,山东省粮食总产量年际变化主要由粮食单产变化和播种面积变化决定,而单产的提高是对粮食总产量变化影响最大的因素;第二,在影响单产的因素中,自然因素影响最为显著,其影响度占45%~53%;第三,在山东省常发的几种自然灾害中,旱灾成灾率与粮食产量变化的关联度最大,达0.7106,之后依次是水灾受灾未成灾率、其他灾害成灾率、旱灾受灾未成灾率和其他灾害受灾未成灾率,其关联度分别为0.6983、0.6935、0.6812和0.6714,而水灾成灾率与粮食产量变化的关联度最小,为0.6341。之后,通过构建抗灾能力评估的动态二维博弈模型对山东省粮食生产对各种自然灾害的抵抗能力进行了分析,发现:第一,1978~2014年山东省粮食生产对旱灾的抵抗能力总体是增强的,对水灾的抵抗能力总体有所减弱,而对其他灾害的抵抗能力适中;第二,粮食生产抵御旱灾和其他灾害的能力整体呈现出比较明显的周期性,而抵御水灾能力周期性不明显。据此研究,认为要稳定山东省粮食生产,必须重视农业防灾,尤其是要增强抗旱防汛能力,并针对性地提出了一系列具体应对措施,包括加强农田水利基础设施建设与管理、加快完善农业自然灾害预警预报系统,优化灾害防治思路,提升灾害保险能力,探索筹建农业自然灾害风险基金等。

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Natural Disasters on Grain Production of Shandong Province

Based on the relevant data of natural disasters and food production in 1978 ~ 2014 in shandong province,we analyzes the relationship between them by using grey correlation method and get the following conclusions:(1)The grain output interannual variability is mainly decided by the change of yield and sowing area,and the increase of yield is one of the largest factors impact on the total grain output.(2)In the factors which affect the yield,natural factors influence the most significant,the effect is 45% ~ 45%.(3)In several kinds of natural disasters which often occured,the correlation between drought hazard rate and the the change of grain yield is maximum followed by the non-hazard rate of flood disaster,other disasters hazard rate,the non-hazard rate of drought disaster and the non-hazard rate of other disasters,the correlation between flood hazard rate and grain yield change was minimum,it is 0.6341.After that,by building the two-dimensional dynamic game model of vulnerability assessment of grain production in shandong province,we analyze the resistance ability of all kinds of natural disasters and draw following conclusions:(1)The resistance ability of food production to drought is enhanced,to floods is reduced,to other disasters is moderate.(2)The ability to resist drought and other disasters of grain production overall presents obvious periodicity while periodicity is not obvious in against floods.On the basis of the research ,we think that we must stabilize grain production in Shandong by attaching great importance to the agricultural disaster prevention,especially enhancing drought flood prevention ability construction.We can take the following measures in detail:To strengthen the construction of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure,to improve the warning forecast system of agricultural natural disaster,to explore the preparation of agricultural natural disaster risk funds,and so on.