江苏省农业碳排放时序特征与趋势预测

为探讨江苏省农业碳排放时序特征及未来碳排放趋势，利用排放因子法对江苏省2000—2019年农业碳排放进行估算，并运用STIRPAT模型对2020—2030年全省农业碳排放趋势进行预测。结果表明：江苏省2000—2019年的CO₂排放当量（CO₂e）整体呈现降低-升高-降低的趋势，并在2005年达峰，估算为8 361.77万t，其中种植业、畜牧业则分别在2010年、2003年达峰，种植业排放量远高于畜牧业。农业CO₂e排放强度呈先升高后降低的趋势，2003年后排放强度逐年递减，到2019年已降至1.31 t·万元^-1；在各碳源中，水稻种植是全省农业碳排放的最大排放源，而在主要畜禽中，猪养殖过程中造成的碳排放远高于其他畜禽；预计2020—2030年，伴随城镇化发展、农业人均GDP提高和农业碳排放强度的进一步降低，全省农业CO₂e排放量仍将呈下降趋势，在减碳的同时可以兼顾农业经济高效发展。研究表明，江苏省农业已实现碳达峰，未来农业碳排放的持续降低将有利于加速全省碳中和目标的实现。

Temporal characteristics and trend prediction of agricultural carbon emission in Jiangsu Province, China

In order to explorends in Jiangsu Province, the emission factor method was used to estimate the agricultural carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province the temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon and future carbon emission tre from 2000 to 2019. The STochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT) model was used to predict the trends of agricultural carbon emission in the province from 2020 to 2030. The results indicated that the CO₂e emissions of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2019 showed a trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing, and reached a peak in 2005, which is estimated to be 83 617 700 tons, of which the planting industry and animal husbandry were in 2010 and 2003, respectively. In 2005, the planting industry''s emissions were much higher than that of the animal husbandry industry. The intensity of agricultural CO₂e emission firstly increased and then decreased. After 2003, the intensity of emissions decreased year after year, and by 2019 it had reduced to 131 t·million yuan^-1. Among the various carbon sources, rice cultivation was the largest source of agricultural carbon emissions in the province, and among the major livestock and poultry, the carbon emissions caused by pig breeding were much higher than for other livestock and poultry. From 2020 to 2030, with the development of urbanization, the increase of agricultural per capita gross domestic product(GDP) and the further reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity, the province'' s agricultural CO₂e emissions will still show a downward trend. Low-carbon emission reduction and efficient agricultural economic development will also contribute toward this. Studies have shown that agriculture in Jiangsu Province has taken the lead in achieving carbon peaks, and the continued reduction of agricultural carbon emissions in the future will help accelerate the realization of the province''s carbon neutral goals.