基于熵权-集对模型的耕地面源污染生态风险评价与防控——以新疆昌吉州为例

为构建以化肥、农药、农膜为主要风险源的生态风险评价与防控模型，基于熵权-集对分析模型尝试评价新疆昌吉州不同县市空间区域耕地面源污染风险等级异质性。结果表明，2004-2017年昌吉州化肥施用总量、农药使用总量和农膜使用总量逐年大幅增加，呈现未来增长态势。耕地质量等别年度监测数据的样本调查结果显示，土壤理化性质、质地、结构等多项指标均呈现不同程度的恶化。昌吉州耕地面源污染的生态风险强度区空间上主要分布于昌吉州西部的昌吉市、呼图壁县和玛纳斯县，生态风险中度区主要分布于昌吉州中部的阜康市、吉木萨尔县，生态风险轻度区主要分布于昌吉州最东部的奇台县和木垒哈萨克自治县。研究表明，新疆昌吉州耕地面源污染存在空间格局的生态风险异质性，呈现东、中、西污染聚集且由西向东依次减轻的空间分布规律，耕地面源污染的生态风险与区域产业经济发展、农民传统耕作方式、水文地质条件、地理位置、周边环境基础状况等因素相关。基于此，运用Bow-Tie模型构建了耕地面源污染生态风险的防控与差异化治理体系。

Ecological risk assessment and control of non-point source pollution in cultivated land based on the entropy weight-set pair model: Using Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang, China as an example

The ecological risk assessment and control model with chemical fertilizer, pesticide, and agricultural film as the main risk sources was constructed to strengthen the prevention, control, and governance of non-point source pollution. Using the entropy weight-set pair analysis model, this study attempted to evaluate the risk grade heterogeneity of non-point source pollution of cultivated land in different counties and cities of Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang, China. The results showed that the total amount of chemical fertilizer application, pesticide use, and agricultural film use increased yearly in Changji Prefecture during 2004-2017, indicating a continuous growth trend for the future. The sample survey of cultivated land quality from annual monitoring data showed that the physical and chemical properties, texture, and structure of soil were deteriorated to some extent. The high ecological risk area of non-point source pollution of cultivated land in Changji Prefecture was mainly distributed in Changji City, Hutubi County, and Manas County in the western part of Changji Prefecture, and the moderate risk ecological area was mainly distributed in Fukang City and Jimusaer County in the middle part of Changji Prefecture. The low ecological risk areas were mainly distributed in Qitai County and Mulei County in the easternmost part of Changji Prefecture. The regional characteristics showed a spatial distribution of pollution accumulation in the east, middle, and west, which decreased from the west to the east. The reason for the ecological risk of non-point source pollution of cultivated land was related to the development of regional industry and economy, traditional farming methods of farmers, hydrogeological conditions, geographical location, and basic conditions of the surrounding environment. Based on this, the Bow-Tie model was used to construct the ecological risk prevention and control system of nonpoint source pollution in cultivated land.