| 1961—2015年各国化肥消费量与人均GDP相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王博,徐志宇,王楷,李季,许艇,韩一军,习斌,郝晓燕,高尚宾.1961—2015年各国化肥消费量与人均GDP相关性分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2019,36(6):718-727. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王博 徐志宇 王楷 李季 许艇 韩一军 习斌 郝晓燕 高尚宾 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100094,农业农村部农业生态与资源保护总站, 北京 100125,中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100094,中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100094,中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100094,中国农业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083,农业农村部农业生态与资源保护总站, 北京 100125,中国农业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083,农业农村部农业生态与资源保护总站, 北京 100125 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划两减项目（2016YFD0201306） |
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| 摘 要： | 我国已经连续30年成为世界化肥消费量最大的国家，单位面积化肥施用量也长期居世界高位水平，化肥的过量施用既造成严重的农业面源污染，也制约着我国农业的可持续发展。本研究收集了美国、加拿大等12个典型国家1961—2015年的人均GDP和化肥消费量的时间序列数据，通过回归分析法得出各国人均GDP与化肥消费量显著相关（P<0.05），发达国家的人均GDP在8000~13 000美元区间时，化肥消费量由增长阶段进入稳定或降低阶段。从我国目前人均GDP（>8000美元）的发展水平与世界发达国家化肥的历史消费轨迹来看，我国的化肥消费量已经具备了从增长阶段转变到稳定阶段的条件。
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| 关 键 词： | 人均GDP，化肥消费量，相关性，拐点 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/9/7 0:00:00 |
Correlation of GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption of different countries from 1961 to 2015 |
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| WANG Bo,XU Zhi-yu,WANG Kai,LI Ji,XU Ting,HAN Yi-jun,XI Bin,HAO Xiao-yan and GAO Shang-bin.Correlation of GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption of different countries from 1961 to 2015[J].Journal of Agro-Environment Science( J. Agro-Environ. Sci.),2019,36(6):718-727. |
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| Authors: | WANG Bo XU Zhi-yu WANG Kai LI Ji XU Ting HAN Yi-jun XI Bin HAO Xiao-yan and GAO Shang-bin |
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| Institution: | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China,Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China,College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China,Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China,College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China and Rural Energy & Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China |
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| Abstract: | China has had the highest chemical fertilizer consumption worldwide for the last 30 years. Overconsumption of fertilizer is an large problem leading to serious agricultural non-point pollution and unsustainable agricultural development in China. The correlation of GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption (1961-2015) of 12 countries, including the United States and Canada, were evaluated by regression analysis. The results revealed a significant correlation (P<0.05) between GDP per capita and chemical fertilizer consumption. The point of change from growth to stabilization for chemical fertilizer consumption occurred when the GDP per capita was $8000~13 000. In China, conditions facilitating the transformation of chemical fertilizer consumption from growth to stabilization were available based on the present GDP per capita level in China (>$8000) and the history of chemical fertilizer consumption in developed countries. |
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| Keywords: | GDP per capita chemical fertilizer consumption correlation change point |
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