典型喀斯特槽谷区石漠化时空演变及未来情景模拟

石漠化已成为我国西南地区最严重的生态灾难，探寻石漠化时空演变的规律，对于生态修复和区域的可持续发展是非常重要和亟需的。本文利用改进后更为精确的遥感影像石漠化解译方法，基于最新的且长时间线的研究区1990、2004、2016年遥感影像图，并利用CA-Markov预测方法，探寻研究区1990—2016年并预测2016—2021年石漠化时空演变规律。研究结果表明：研究区近30年的石漠化时空演变呈现出先恶化再好转的趋势，1990—2004年受到高强度超负荷人类活动及自然灾害影响，石漠化程度加剧，生态环境恶化；2004—2016年一系列治理工程的实施加之大量农村劳动力从土地依附中解放出来，使得石漠化程度好转，自然环境得到恢复，生态系统越来越好。预测的2016—2021年石漠化演变趋势显示：石漠化不断呈现好转趋势，区域生态环境持续变好。

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Karst Rocky Desertification and Future Trends Based on CA-Markov Methods in Typical Karst Valley

Karst rocky desertification(KRD)has become the most serious ecological disaster in Southwest China. It is very important and much-needed to explore the rule of spatial-temporal evolution of KRD for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the region. In this paper, the improved accurate remote sensing image interpreting method and CA-Markov prediction method were used to explore the spatial-temporal evolution rule of KRD in the study area from 1990 to 2021 based on the long time line remote sensing image of the year of 1990, 2004 and 2016. The results were as follows:the spatial -temporal evolution rule of KRD presented "first deterioration and then improvement" in the study area at nearly 30 years. The deterioration of KRD was affected by high intensity overload human activities and natural disasters in 1990-2004, which made the ecological environment deterioration. However, the KRD had gradually improved with the implementation of a series of governance projects, and a large number of rural labor forces were liberated from the land in 2004-2016, which made the natural environment restoration, and ecological system was getting better and better. At the same time, the trend of KRD evolution was showing improvement from the predicted years of 2016-2021 and the ecological environment in the region continued to become better.