1965-2014年冀西北气候变化及其对气候生产力的影响

为了研究冀西北气候变化及其对气候生产力的影响,以张家口地区为例,利用全地区1965-2014年逐年年平均气温、降水气象资料,应用线性趋势分析、5a滑动平均以及Thornth waite Memorial气候生产力模型等对当地50a气温、降水和气候生产力的时空变化进行了分析。结果显示:(1)50a张家口地区变暖趋势显著,年平均气温呈由西北向东南逐渐增温的趋势;(2)降水量呈缓慢下降趋势,全区分布极不均匀,坝下多、坝上少,在东西方向出现由中心向四周依次递增的趋势;(3)气候生产力呈现弱上升趋势,降水量为气候生产力增加的主要限制因子。未来气候变化"暖湿型"气候对农业生产增加最有利,而"冷干型"气候对农业生产增加最不利。农业生产应以粮为本,利用控制气候因子等新技术发展错季蔬菜生产,特别是坝上地区,其气候生产率较低,较适宜发展蔬菜产业,可以提高气候生产率,实现农民增产增收。

Analysis of Climatic Change and its Influence on the Climatic Productivity in Zhangjiakou of Northwestern Hebei during 1965-2014

Take the Zhangjiakou city for example to analysis of climatic change and its influence on the cli?matic productivity in northwestern Hebei.According to the annual temperature and precipitation of 14 weath?er stations in the city during 1965-2014,using the methods of linear trend,5-year running average and the Thornth waite Memorial model,this paper has analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of tempera?ture,precipitation and the climate productivity in this area.The results showed that:(1)in recent 50 years, the temperature increased obviously and the annual mean temperature increased gradually from north to south;(2)the precipitation had a weak decreasing trend and the annual precipitation add gradually from north to south and from the center to the east-west sides;(3)the climate productivity had a weak increas?ing trend,the precipitation was the main limiting factor affecting the climate productivity.In future,“warm-wet”climate would have greater advantage of increasing productivity,“cold-dry”climate would have disadvan?tage of increasing climate productivity. Agricultural production should take grain as the root,and use such new technologies as controlling climatic factors to develop the out-of-season vegetables industry.Especially , the Bashang District,which the climatic productivity is lower than the other areas,is more appropriate for the development of the vegetable industry to improve the utilization of climatic productivity and increase farmers’incomes.