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| 基于遗传程序设计的产流预报模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 魏明华,郑志宏,黄强,邱林.基于遗传程序设计的产流预报模型[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2011,42(1):84-89. |
| 作者姓名： | 魏明华 郑志宏 黄强 邱林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学,西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,西安,710048;华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 2. 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 3. 西安理工大学,西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,西安,710048 |
| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业专项经费项目，河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划项目，河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 产流预报模型是洪水预报的基础,为了提高产流预报精度,将遗传程序引入降水、径流关系回归模型中。遗传程序能够通过自身演化寻找因果变量之间的回归关系,自动形成函数表达式,比传统方法有很大的灵活性,不必事先选定具体的数学表达式。将该预报模型应用于陡河水库的径流预报,并同传统线性回归方法进行比较,结果表明:基于遗传程序设计的产流预报模型适应性强,拟合精度高,适合解决非线性问题,为径流预报提供了新方法。 |
| 关 键 词： | 降雨径流关系 遗传程序 预报 精度 |
Model of Run-off Forecasting Based on Genetic Program |
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| WEI Ming-hua,ZHENG Zhi-hong,HUANG Qiang,QIU Lin.Model of Run-off Forecasting Based on Genetic Program[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2011,42(1):84-89. | |
| Authors: | WEI Ming-hua ZHENG Zhi-hong HUANG Qiang QIU Lin |
| Institution: | 1.Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE at Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;2.North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China) |
| Abstract: | Run-off production forecasting is the basis of flood predication,in order to improve Run-off production forecasting accuracy.A model of genetic programming was established to describe the relation between precipitation and run-off.The model which is more flexible and intelligent could find the optimal structure automatically by evolutionary algorithm and could avoid the inconvenience of establishing concrete formula.The model was applied into run-off predication in Douhe reservoir,and comparing genetic programming model with traditional methods,the result showed that the genetic programming model had high accuracy and was effective,and was to resolve the nonlinear problems.The model provides a new approach to forecast runoff. |
| Keywords: | relation between precipitation and run-off genetic programming forecasting accuracy |
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