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| 灰色系统理论在林业用地预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈峰,胡振琪,马彬,李良,张立松.灰色系统理论在林业用地预测中的应用[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2006,37(1):57-60. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈峰 胡振琪 马彬 李良 张立松 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国矿业大学(北京)土地复垦与生态重建研究所,北京,100083 2. 泰安市城市排水管理处,山东,泰安,271000 3. 中港一航局二公司,山东,青岛,266071 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40071045) |
| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论,建立了辽宁省某市林业用地的常规GM(1,1)预测模型,并进行了模型精度检验,相对误差最大为0.53%,利用该模型对2003年的林业用地状况进行了预测检验,相对误差为3.65%,小于5%,证明该预测模型预测精度较高,预测效果较好。针对灰色系统理论及研究区域林业用地的特点,提出了在今后林业用地预测时可以在利用GM(1,1)模型进行预测的基础上,叠加国家规划中每年的生态退耕还林量而获得最佳林业用地量预测值的建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 林业用地 GM(1 1)预测模型 模型精度检验 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1700(2006)01-0057-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月23日 |
Application of the Grey System Theory in the Forest Land Forecasting |
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| CHEN Feng,HU Zhen-Qi,Ma Bin,Li Liang,Zhao Xia.Application of the Grey System Theory in the Forest Land Forecasting[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2006,37(1):57-60. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Feng HU Zhen-Qi Ma Bin Li Liang Zhao Xia |
| Institution: | 1.China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing |
| Abstract: | In this paper,based on grey system theory,the general GM(1,1) forecasting model for the forest land forecasting of one city in Liaoning province was set up and it has been proof-tested in model precision.The max comparative difference was 0.53%.Verified by use of 2003's date of the forest land,it has been proved that the model was effective in practice and the comparative difference was 3.65%,less than 5%.In allusion to the character of the grey system and the city's forest land,some modified suggestions have been put forward that the better forecasting area should be equal to the forecasting area based on GM(1,1)plus the forest land area from zoology-withdrawing-infield area of the country programming every year. |
| Keywords: | forest land GM(1 1) forecasting model proof-tested in model precision |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |