| 时间序列分析在辽宁朝阳地区干旱灾变中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 迟道才,张宁宁,袁吉,刘新.时间序列分析在辽宁朝阳地区干旱灾变中的应用[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2006,37(4):627-630. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 迟道才 张宁宁 袁吉 刘新 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 沈阳农业大学,沈阳,110161
2. 辽宁省土地整理中心,沈阳,110032 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 介绍时间序列分析的应用,并综合运用时间序列分析对辽宁朝阳地区干旱年份进行预测。经检验,平稳时间序列模型可预测干旱灾害发生的时间,并具有较高的精度,在此基础上提出若干抗旱措施,为辽宁朝阳地区干旱研究及其治理提供依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 干旱灾害 时间序列分析 抗旱措施 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1700(2006)04-0627-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月2日 |
Application of Time Series Analysis in Drought Calamities Forecast in Chaoyang |
| |
| CHI Dao-cai,ZHANG Ning-ning,YUAN Ji,LIU Xin.Application of Time Series Analysis in Drought Calamities Forecast in Chaoyang[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2006,37(4):627-630. |
| |
| Authors: | CHI Dao-cai ZHANG Ning-ning YUAN Ji LIU Xin |
| |
| Institution: | 1 College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China ; 2 Land Reclamation Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110032, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The article deals with an application of the method of forecasting calamity by use of the theory of time series analysis.Time series analysis can be applied to predict drought in future year in Chaoyang.The theory and steps of the method is introduced.The probability of the event predicted can be given by stable time series analysis.The precision is satisfied.It proposes some anti-drought measures,provides a foundation for drought research and disaster mitigation. |
| |
| Keywords: | drought calamity time series analysis anti-drought |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
