系统动力学方法在林分断面积生长模型中的应用

由于辽宁东部地区日本落叶松长期处于自然生长状态下,缺乏科学的经营管理,因而年平均生长量较低,亟待进行人为经营,加快其生长,增加后备资源。将系统动力学方法应用于日本落叶松断面积生长研究中,旨在对日本落叶松的生长进行准确的预测,从而为森林经理者合理经营提供理论指导。分别用传统方法和系统动力学的方法对断面积生长进行建模,并进行比较择优,同时用同一地区的30块样地模型进行了精度检验。结果表明,用系统动力学方法来模拟断面积生长规律简便易行,突破了以往传统模型的局限性,同时克服了传统模型繁琐复杂和参数较多的缺点,拟合效果理想。

Application of System Dynamics Method to Stand Basal Area Growth Model

Because Japanese larch in the east area of Liaoning Province grows naturally for a long period,its annual increment is low,and artificial management is needed to accelerate the growth and enhance reserve resources.In order to predict the growth of Japanese larch accurately and offer a instruction of rational management for forest manager,the system dynamics were applied to study the growth of stand basal area of Japanese larch.The models of the stand basal area with the traditional mathematics method and the system dynamic method were used,and 30 stand plots in the same area were taken as samples to check the precise of the models.The result indicated that system dynamics method fit the growth of stand basal area,preventing from the limits of traditional mathematic method.It could conquer the defect of the complex and too many parameters in the model,and the fitting effect was very ideal.