辽宁省近50年气温变化特征及突变分析

采用辽宁省50个测站的1958～2007年50年的气温资料,应用线性倾向估计对辽宁省年平均气温、年平均日最高、日最低气温的年际、年代际变化进行统计分析,并利用Mann-Kendall方法进行了突变分析.结果表明:辽宁省年平均气温、年平均日最高、日最低气温均呈上升趋势,其线性倾向率分别为0.285℃·10a~(-1)、0.199℃·10a~(-1)和0.395℃·10a~(-1);日最低气温的增温比平均气温和日最高气温更加显著.辽宁省冬季、夏季气温变化趋势存在明显差异,冬季气温显著上升,而夏季增温趋势不明显.辽宁省年平均气温的突变点出现在1995年,年平均日最高气温突变点在1996年,年平均日最低气温在1989年发生突变.

Temperature Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis in Recent 50 Years in Liaoning Province

In this paper, using the air temperature data from 50 observation stations in Liaoning Province during 1958-2007, inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of mean annual temperature, mean annual daily maximum and minimum temperature (expressed Tmean, Tmax and Tmin, respectively) were analyzed, and abrupt changes were detected with the Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that Tmean, Tmax and Train all behaved rising trends obviously, their linear trend rates were 0.285℃·10a~(-1), 0.199℃·10a~(-1) and 0.395℃·10a~(-1), respectively. The change trends had the obvious differences between winter and summer temperature in Liaoning Province, temperature was raising obviously in winter, but was not clear in summer. The abrupt change points of Tmean, Tmax and Tmin were at 1995, 1996 and 1989, respectively.