| 两次拟合灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的运用 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛娟,张筱慧.两次拟合灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的运用[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2005,36(6):736-738. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛娟 张筱慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学,信息与电气工程学院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对普通灰色预测模型在预测过程中当历史数据有较大波动时预测精度较差的问题，对两次拟合等维灰色预测模型进行研究，并对其进行改进，通过对华北某地区用电量的建模预测验证其有效性。两次拟合灰色预测模型是利用一次拟合的结果重新建模，经研究发现当历史数据有较大波动时，利用两次拟合灰色预测模型进行预测可以提高模型的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 两次拟合灰色预测 中长期电力负荷预测 灰色预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1700(2005)06-0736-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 05 20 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年5月20日 |
A Double-fit Gray Modle of Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting |
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| XUE Juan,ZHANG Xiao-hui.A Double-fit Gray Modle of Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2005,36(6):736-738. |
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| Authors: | XUE Juan ZHANG Xiao-hui |
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| Institution: | College of Information and Electric Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | The theory of gray system has been used for mid-long term power load forecasting; the double-fit gray model of forecasting is introduced in the field of load forecasting and typical practical examples. The double-fit gray model is set up based upon the result of gray model. The research showed that the double-fit gray model of forecasting can improve the precision, especially when the annual electricity consumption fluctuates. |
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| Keywords: | double-fit gray model med-long term power load forecasting gray model |
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