基于分布式水文模型的嘉陵江流域暴雨洪涝致灾风险阈值研究

以四川嘉陵江流域的金溪水文站以上段为研究区域,基于分布式水文模型HBV-D对河流暴雨洪涝灾害的临界面雨量阈值进行研究,结果表明:模型在嘉陵江流域的适用性较好,在2013-2015年率定期和2010-2012年验证期的Nash效率系数分别为0.68和0.67,相关系数超过0.82;通过模型反演建立降水—流量—水位的关系,得到了不同前期基础水位的24h面雨量和水位的关系,将金溪水文站的警戒水位(306.5m)和保证水位(308.7m)作为临界判别条件,确定了不同前期基础水位的致灾临界面雨量.

A Study of Thresholds of Rainstorm-Flood Hazard Based on HBV-D Hydrological Model Over the Jialing River Basin

In a case study of the upstream basin of the Jinxi Hydrologic Station in the Jialing River of Sichuan, the area precipitation threshold values of rainstorm-flood hazard were determined based on the distributed hydrological model HBV-D. The results showed that this model was well applicable to the upper Jialing River Basin. The Nash efficiency index in the calibration period of 2013-2015 and the verification period of 2010-2012 was 0.68 and 0.67, respectively, and the correlation coefficients were over 0.82. According to the relationship among area rainfall, runoff and water level established based on retrieval, curves of 24-hour area precipitation and different previous water levels were determined. Finally, according to the critical criteria-warning water level (306.5 m) and safety water level (308.7 m) at the Jinxi Hydrologic Station, the area precipitation thresholds in different previous water levels were determined.