| 基于HMM的缝洞型油藏产量预测算法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 崔书岳,黄晓辉,陈云亮,郑松青.基于HMM的缝洞型油藏产量预测算法[J].西南农业大学学报,2020,42(2):137-144. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 崔书岳 黄晓辉 陈云亮 郑松青 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油化工股份有限公司 石油勘探开发研究院 西北地区勘探开发研究中心, 北京 100083;2. 中国地质大学 计算机学院, 武汉 430074;3. 中国石油化工股份有限公司 石油勘探开发研究院 油田开发所, 北京 100083 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技重大专项资助项目（2016ZX05014）；国家自然科学基金项目（51674285）. |
| |
| 摘 要： | 缝洞型油藏具有非均质性强，开采难度大的特点.预测油藏产量变化规律对后期开发方案的制定、调整以及实际的生产优化至关重要.本文以塔河油田实际生产数据为基础，建立了基于HMM（隐马尔可夫模型）的缝洞型油藏产量变化规律预测模型.该模型可预测未来一周油藏生产井产油趋势，为油藏生产开发提供指导.实验结果显示，本文提出的基于HMM的产量预测算法预测精度最大可达85.71%.
|
| 关 键 词： | 油藏工程 缝洞型油藏 塔河油田 产油量预测 HMM |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/2/26 0:00:00 |
An HMM-Based Method for Forecasting the Production Trend of Fractured-vuggy Reservoirs |
| |
| CUI Shu-yue,HUANG Xiao-hui,CHEN Yun-liang,ZHENG Song-qing.An HMM-Based Method for Forecasting the Production Trend of Fractured-vuggy Reservoirs[J].Journal of Southwest Agricultural University,2020,42(2):137-144. |
| |
| Authors: | CUI Shu-yue HUANG Xiao-hui CHEN Yun-liang ZHENG Song-qing |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Northwest Research Center, Petroleum Exploration & Production Research Institute, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Beijing 100083, China;2. School of Computer Science, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;3. Oilefield Development Department, Petroleum Exploration & Production Research Institute, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Beijing 100083, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Fractured-vuggy reservoirs are characterized by high anisotropism and great difficulty in exploitation. Petroleum production trend prediction is an essential step for the design and adjustment of development plan and production optimization. Using the real production data of Tahe Oilfield, this paper proposes a prediction model for the petroleum production trend of fractured-vuggy reservoirs based on HMM (Hidden Markov Model). The proposed method can be utilized to predict the dynamic trend of oil production of the following week, thus providing guidance for the production and exploitation of fractured-vuggy reservoirs. In an experiment the proposed method gives a prediction accuracy as high as 85.71%. |
| |
| Keywords: | petroleum reservoir engineering fractured-vuggy reservoir Tahe oilfield prediction on oil production HMM (Hidden Markov Model) |
|
| 点击此处可从《西南农业大学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《西南农业大学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
