重庆地区玉米气象产量变化及气候影响因子简析

选用代表重庆4个区域的合川、垫江、开县、南川1960～2001年的气象资料及玉米产量资料，采用Mann—Kendall突变检测方法对玉米产量资料序列进行分段，借鉴贝尔（Baier）产量模式思路计算了玉米的气象产量，利用相关等方法简要分析了影响玉米产量的主要气候因子．结果表明：基于贝尔产量模式思路的气象产量计算方法同时考虑了气候和非气候因子对气象产量的影响，是比较符合客观实际的气象产量计算方法；在1960～2001年时段内重庆4个地区玉米单产均有较明显的上升趋势，除南川玉米单产突变不显著外，其余3地玉米单产的突变均发生70年代后期到80年代初期；重庆地区玉米的气象产量在年际间有较大差异，而且在不同地区也有较明显的差异，可能与当地的气候的年际变化及本身的气候差异有关；生育期内的降水多寡（旱涝）对重庆玉米产量的影响较大，是影响重庆玉米产量的主要气候因子．

Changes of Maize Meteorological Yields and an Analysis of Main Climatic Affecting Factors In Chongqing

The meteorological and maize yield data in 4 regions (Hechuan,Dianjiang,Kaixian and Nanchuan) of Chongqing in 1960-2001 were used in this study.The Mann-Kendall model was used to divide the subsections of the maize yield series and the Baier yields models were employed to calculate the Meteorological yield of maize.Based on the results,the primary climate factors influencing maize yield were analyzed with conventional statistical procedures.The calculation ways of meteorological yields based on Baier yields models proved to be applicable because they take into account the effects of both climatic factors and non-climatic factors.The per-unit-area yields of maize increased markedly in the late 1970's and the early 1980's in Hechuan,Dianjiang,Kaixian of Chongqing,Nanchuan being an exception.Considerable inter-annual and inter-regional variations in maize meteorological yields were noticed in Chongqing for the period studied,which may be associated with the annual fluctuation in the local climate.Precipitations during the growth period of the crop appeared to be the main factor influencing maize yield in the regions.