| 一种基于花授粉算法的WRF风速集合预报新模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 田梦,曲宗希,吴彬贵,黄鹤,张文煜.一种基于花授粉算法的WRF风速集合预报新模型[J].西南农业大学学报,2019,41(8):99-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田梦 曲宗希 吴彬贵 黄鹤 张文煜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学 大气科学学院/半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000;2. 天津市气象局, 天津 300074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41630421，41675018）；天津市自然科学基金项目（17JCYBJC23400）. |
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| 摘 要： | 基于不同水平分辨率和边界层参数化方案的集合预报思路,应用花授粉算法与不限制负值的约束理论(FPA-NNCT)进行权重平均,提出一种新的风速集合预报模型(FPA-NNCT-WRF-E).利用山东省代表山地和海滨下垫面的2个风电场风速实测数据,将新模型与传统算术集合模型(M-WRF-E)以及FPA模型(FPA-WRF-E)的风速预报结果进行对比评估.结果表明:FPA-NNCT-WRF-E预报明显优于M-WRF-E和FPA-WRF-E的风速预报,与M-WRF-E相比, FPA-WRF-E将风速平均绝对误差(MAE)减小了20%以上,而新模型FPA-NNCT-WRF-E将MAE减小了38%以上.预报的准确性得到了提高.
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| 关 键 词： | 风速预报 集合预报 花授粉算法 预报精度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/6/13 0:00:00 |
A Novel Ensemble Forecasting Model for Wind Speed Based on WRF and FPA |
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| TIAN Meng,QU Zong-xi,WU Bin-gui,HUANG He,ZHANG Wen-yu.A Novel Ensemble Forecasting Model for Wind Speed Based on WRF and FPA[J].Journal of Southwest Agricultural University,2019,41(8):99-106. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Meng QU Zong-xi WU Bin-gui HUANG He ZHANG Wen-yu |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University/Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. Tianjin Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin 300074, China |
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| Abstract: | Considering multiple resolutions and boundary layer parameterizations, a novel ensemble forecast model (FPA-NNCT-WRF-E) is proposed in this paper, based on the weather research and forecasting model (WRF model), flower pollination algorithm (FPA) and no negative constraint theory (NNCT). And 10-day wind observations from two wind farms of different underlying surface are used to validate the effectiveness of this new model. The results show that FPA-NNCT-WRF-E is superior to M-WRF-E and FPA-WRF-E. Compared with M-WRF-E, FPA-WRF-E has reduced the mean absolute error (MAE) by more than 20%, while FPA-NNCT-WRF-E has reduced MAE by more than 38%. |
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| Keywords: | wind speed forecast ensemble forecasting flower pollination algorithm (FPA) forecast accuracy |
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