阿克苏地区土地规模经营意愿影响因素分析———基于logistic多分类回归模型

以新疆阿克苏地区实地调研情况为例,对农民土地规模经营意愿及其可能的影响因素用logistic多分类回归模型进行实证分析.结果表明:53.37％的农户不希望扩大土地规模,家庭人口数量、区域经济发展水平、农地流转价格、非农经济收入所占比重、土地规模经营预期、受教育程度、雇佣农工成本对土地规模经营意愿具有显著影响.区域经济条件较发达、农地流转价格的下降、规模经营预期的上升,以及雇佣农工成本的降低会使农民扩大土地规模经营的意愿增强.

Aksu large-scale land management on desired——Based on multinominal logistic regression model

The research taken Aksu field as an example, farmers scale land management willingness and scale land management factors that might affect multiple classifiers using logistic regression model empirical analysis. The results showed that 53.37% of farmers did not want to expand the scale of land, household population, the level of regional economic development, the transfer of agricultural land prices, non-farm income share of the expected large-scale land operation, level of education, employment peasants and workers had a significant impact on the cost of large-scale land management intention. More developed regional economic conditions, agricultural land transfer price was high, the expected scale land management and Employment peasants and workers and low cost made the farmers to expand the scale land management will increase.