基于Markov模型的碧塔海流域景观动态分析

利用碧塔海流域1955-2011年间5个变化阶段的航拍数据和卫星影像数据编制了景观类型图，并通过叠图分析统计获取了所有景观类型在5个变化阶段的面积转移矩阵；在此基础上验证了Markov模型的适用性以及各变化阶段变化模式的同一性，并利用该模型进行了同本底预测，分析了研究区各变化阶段景观变化的主要趋势；引入景观类型转入/转出贡献率和景观类型保留率，进一步细化变化过程的分析。结果表明，自然演替是碧塔海流域整个研究时期景观变化的主要过程，随着旅游开发的进行，人为干扰显著加强，有必要进行较小尺度上的更细致研究，有针对性地加强保护措施。

Analysis on landscape dynamic of Bitahai watershed based on Markov model

In this paper, aerial images and satellite images of Bitahai watershed from 5 different periods from 1955 to 2011 were used to conduct a landscape dynamic analysis. Area transition matrixes of these periods were calculated. On this basis, compatibility of Morkov model was proven, identities of the change mode of the periods were tested, and analysis about change trend during the periods were made.Conversion-in rate, conversion-out rate and preserving ratio of landscape elements were introduced to describe the detailed change process. It was found that natural succession was the main landscape change process, human disturbance came along with tourism development. More sophisticated research under smaller scale was suggested to support targeted protective measures.